Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Valuation
Market multiples plus a Sirius Investors DCF: TTM revenue, EBIT, and FCF, then a 5-year bear / base / bull fair value versus the current price. Upgrade to unlock DCF fair value, reverse-DCF market pricing, and the full assumption set.
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See DCF fair value, what the market is pricing, assumption details, reliability scoring, and the 5-year FCFF bridge. Market multiples below stay free.
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What would justify EXPE’s current price?
Reverse DCF — what the market must be assuming, given this forecast structure, for $318.50 to be fair. Fair value comes after this, not before.
Market-implied terminal EV/FCFF
What terminal multiple today’s price requires if the 5-year forecast holds.
Sirius implied terminal EV/FCFF
Gordon exit multiple from the base DCF assumptions.
| Metric | Sirius base | Required at $318.50 |
|---|---|---|
| Year-5 FCFF | ||
| Implied terminal EV/FCFF | ||
| Terminal growth | ||
| WACC | ||
| FCFF uplift vs base path |
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See the terminal multiple and FCFF uplift today’s quote requires versus the Sirius base case.
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Intrinsic valuation
5-year FCFF DCF. This is DCF-implied fair value under explicit assumptions — not a price target and not a claim that the stock cannot stay expensive. Quality compounders often trade above this model if the market uses a lower discount rate or prices in optionality.
DCF conclusion, reliability score, and valuation gap are available on paid plans.
Current price
$318.50
Base fair value
Valuation gap
Margin of safety
Bear / base / bull fair value
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Why this fair value
The number is only as good as these inputs. Disagree with an assumption and the fair value moves.
Year 1 revenue growth
EBIT margin path
WACC
CapEx / revenue
Terminal growth
Terminal value / EV
Implied terminal EV/FCFF
Normalized EBIT margin
Year-5 EBIT margin
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DCF reliability
How reliable this DCF is as an estimate of intrinsic value, given the predictability of future cash flows and how sensitive the model is to its assumptions. It is not a measure of how risky the company is, and it is not confidence that the stock will rise or fall.
Margin stability
Revenue growth uncertainty
Business-cycle & demand uncertainty
Terminal-value uncertainty
WACC sensitivity
Forecast uncertainty
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Historical EBIT margins
Reported annual EBIT margins. Upgrade to see how the model translates this history into year-5 economics.
| Year | EBIT margin |
|---|---|
| TTM | 18.8% |
| 2025 | 14.7% |
| 2024 | 9.6% |
| 2023 | 8.0% |
| 2022 | 9.3% |
| 2021 | 2.2% |
| 2020 | -29.4% |
| 2019 | 7.5% |
| 2018 | 6.4% |
Market valuation
Multiples from TTM financials. They describe how the stock is priced, not whether that price is justified.
Market cap
36.47B
$318.50 × 0.11B shares
Enterprise value
35.03B
Market cap + debt − cash − short-term investments
P/E
17.9×
Market cap ÷ TTM net income
EV/EBITDA
8.9×
Enterprise value ÷ TTM EBITDA
P/S
2.3×
Market cap ÷ TTM revenue
Equity P/FCF
7.2×
Market cap ÷ TTM FCFF (equity multiple)
EV/FCFF
6.9×
Enterprise value ÷ TTM FCFF — comparable to the DCF terminal multiple
FCF yield
13.8%
TTM FCF ÷ market cap
P/S = 2.3× · P/E = 17.9× · equity P/FCF = 7.2× · EV/FCFF = 6.9×. Equity P/FCF and EV/FCFF are not interchangeable.
WACC × terminal growth sensitivity
Base case is highlighted. This is more honest than a single fair-value number: most of the DCF lives in these two assumptions.
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | |||
| Base | |||
| High |
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5-year FCFF projection (base)
FCFF = NOPAT + D&A + CapEx (cash) + NWC (cash). CapEx is an outflow. NWC cash is negative when working capital absorbs cash and positive when it releases cash.
| Year | Revenue | EBIT margin | FCFF | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||||
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | ||||
| 4 | ||||
| 5 |
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Market cap & enterprise value history
Market Cap & Enterprise Value
Comparison of market capitalization and enterprise value over time
Market Cap
Enterprise Value
Market Cap History
Investor Valuation Insights
As of Aug 17, 2026EV/EBITDA
8.93x
This is a common valuation range; compare to peers and growth outlook before concluding.
EV vs Market Cap Spread
-307.00M
EV is -0.9% vs equity value
Capital Structure Signal
Net Cash Profile
EV premium trend: -0.9 pp vs earliest data
Additional Multiples
EV/Sales: 2.23x
Net Debt/EBITDA: -0.37x
Share count change in dataset: -25.28%
Interpretation guide: EV/EBITDA compares total firm value (debt + equity - cash) to operating earnings. Lower is usually cheaper, but always benchmark against peers, growth rate, margins, and cyclicality.
Market Cap & Enterprise Value Data
Free users can view the latest 3 records. Upgrade to see full history.
| Date | Market Cap | Enterprise Value | Stock Price | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 35.52B | 35.21B | $283.31 | 125.36M |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 24.49B | 26.84B | $186.33 | 131.43M |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 22.00B | 24.35B | $151.79 | 144.97M |
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Enterprise Value Analysis
Unlock analysisEnterprise-value insights and interpretation are included with Pro, Premium, and Enterprise.
Price Change (Dec 2024 to Dec 2025)
The stock price has increased from Dec 2024 to Dec 2025.
Recent Volatility
The stock price has been relatively volatile over the last 5 periods, indicating a higher risk profile.
Risk-Adjusted Return
The stock offers a reasonable return for its level of risk.
Market Cap Change (Dec 2024 to Dec 2025)
The company's market capitalization has increased from Dec 2024 to Dec 2025.