Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Valuation
Market multiples plus a Sirius Investors DCF: TTM revenue, EBIT, and FCF, then a 5-year bear / base / bull fair value versus the current price. Upgrade to unlock DCF fair value, reverse-DCF market pricing, and the full assumption set.
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See DCF fair value, what the market is pricing, assumption details, reliability scoring, and the 5-year FCFF bridge. Market multiples below stay free.
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What would justify AAP’s current price?
Reverse DCF — what the market must be assuming, given this forecast structure, for $56.55 to be fair. Fair value comes after this, not before.
Market-implied terminal EV/FCFF
What terminal multiple today’s price requires if the 5-year forecast holds.
Sirius implied terminal EV/FCFF
Gordon exit multiple from the base DCF assumptions.
| Metric | Sirius base | Required at $56.55 |
|---|---|---|
| Year-5 FCFF | ||
| Implied terminal EV/FCFF | ||
| Terminal growth | ||
| WACC | ||
| FCFF uplift vs base path |
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See the terminal multiple and FCFF uplift today’s quote requires versus the Sirius base case.
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Intrinsic valuation
5-year FCFF DCF. This is DCF-implied fair value under explicit assumptions — not a price target and not a claim that the stock cannot stay expensive. Quality compounders often trade above this model if the market uses a lower discount rate or prices in optionality.
DCF conclusion, reliability score, and valuation gap are available on paid plans.
Current price
$56.55
Base fair value
Valuation gap
Margin of safety
Bear / base / bull fair value
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Why this fair value
The number is only as good as these inputs. Disagree with an assumption and the fair value moves.
Year 1 revenue growth
EBIT margin path
WACC
CapEx / revenue
Terminal growth
Terminal value / EV
Implied terminal EV/FCFF
Normalized EBIT margin
Year-5 EBIT margin
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DCF reliability
How reliable this DCF is as an estimate of intrinsic value, given the predictability of future cash flows and how sensitive the model is to its assumptions. It is not a measure of how risky the company is, and it is not confidence that the stock will rise or fall.
Margin stability
Revenue growth uncertainty
Business-cycle & demand uncertainty
Terminal-value uncertainty
WACC sensitivity
Forecast uncertainty
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Historical EBIT margins
Reported annual EBIT margins. Upgrade to see how the model translates this history into year-5 economics.
| Year | EBIT margin |
|---|---|
| TTM | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 1.9% |
| 2024 | -4.4% |
| 2023 | 0.6% |
| 2022 | 5.7% |
| 2021 | 7.5% |
| 2020 | 7.4% |
| 2019 | 7.0% |
| 2018 | 6.3% |
Market valuation
Multiples from TTM financials. They describe how the stock is priced, not whether that price is justified.
Market cap
3.41B
$56.55 × 0.06B shares
Enterprise value
5.68B
Market cap + debt − cash − short-term investments
P/E
77.5×
Market cap ÷ TTM net income
EV/EBITDA
11.2×
Enterprise value ÷ TTM EBITDA
P/S
0.4×
Market cap ÷ TTM revenue
Equity P/FCF
No trailing cash flow
There isn’t positive trailing free cash flow to divide into price or enterprise value.
EV/FCFF
No trailing cash flow
There isn’t positive trailing free cash flow to divide into price or enterprise value.
FCF yield
0.0%
TTM FCF ÷ market cap
P/S = 0.4× · P/E = 77.5×.
WACC × terminal growth sensitivity
Base case is highlighted. This is more honest than a single fair-value number: most of the DCF lives in these two assumptions.
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | |||
| Base | |||
| High |
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5-year FCFF projection (base)
FCFF = NOPAT + D&A + CapEx (cash) + NWC (cash). CapEx is an outflow. NWC cash is negative when working capital absorbs cash and positive when it releases cash.
| Year | Revenue | EBIT margin | FCFF | PV of FCFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||||
| 2 | ||||
| 3 | ||||
| 4 | ||||
| 5 |
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No market cap data available
Investor Valuation Insights
As of Aug 16, 2026EV/EBITDA
11.16x
This is a common valuation range; compare to peers and growth outlook before concluding.
EV vs Market Cap Spread
N/A
Not enough data to compute EV premium/discount
Capital Structure Signal
N/A
Trend unavailable for selected history
Additional Multiples
EV/Sales: 0.66x
Net Debt/EBITDA: 4.46x
Share count trend unavailable
Interpretation guide: EV/EBITDA compares total firm value (debt + equity - cash) to operating earnings. Lower is usually cheaper, but always benchmark against peers, growth rate, margins, and cyclicality.
Market Cap & Enterprise Value Data
Free users can view the latest 3 records. Upgrade to see full history.
| Date | Market Cap | Enterprise Value | Stock Price | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No market cap and enterprise value data available | ||||
Enterprise Value Analysis
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Analysis unavailable
No enough data